After going 25-10 last year during the regular season and reaching the Sweet Sixteen in the NCAA Tournament, the Tigers are returning most of their players and seem poised to continue the program’s newfound basketball success. In anticipation of the upcoming season, here is a look at Clemson’s schedule and a prediction of the team’s record and standing.
Last year, Clemson ran a 4-out-1-in offensive system that relied on one big man running out to the 3-point line to set screens for the four perimeter players. The defender would then have to choose to go over the screen and risk giving up a lane for the ball handler to drive to the basket, or go under the screen and risk giving the ball handler too much room with which to shoot. Defensively, the team took advantage of the fact that every player in the starting lineup was between 6-foot-3 and 6-foot-9 and elected to switch when forced to guard opposing pick-and-rolls. This prevents mismatches and proved to be an effective system, as the Tigers finished the year with a top-20 defense in terms of opponent field goal percentage and a top-30 defense in terms of opponent points allowed per game.
The first thing to know about Clemson’s schedule is that the team plays in the ACC; the Michael Myers of basketball conferences. According to the Associated Press, seven of the top 25 college basketball teams in the nation reside in the ACC, more than any other conference. This means that Clemson will be squaring off against powerhouses like Duke, Virginia and North Carolina during conference play. The difficult conference schedule should breed good basketball though, as Clemson’s roster is built primarily of upperclassmen and graduate students who have been through the ringer once or twice before.
Most of the Tiger’s games to that point may be considered “tune up” games: games against weaker opponents intended to ease the team into the season and sort out any nagging issues in games with lower stakes. Some of the important matchups after the tune-up games include a road game against preseason #18 Mississippi State and a road game against unranked South Carolina. Mississippi State will should be the litmus test of Tigers this season; a victory could mean the team is on a similar road to success as last year, while a loss could signify that not all is right with the Orange and White. Though South Carolina is unranked in the preseason, the game will be played in Colombia and Gamecock head coach Frank Martin is a tremendous manager of talent, taking the team to the NCAA Tournament Final Four just two years ago.
The schedule only gets tougher from there as Clemson’s conference schedule includes road games against ranked teams like Duke, Syracuse and Florida State, and home contests with Virginia, Virginia Tech, Florida State, North Carolina and Syracuse.
Duke and Virginia are the two teams favored to win the ACC Conference Championship, so those games will be crucial not only in terms of conference standing but in determining how competitive Clemson can be against the top schools in the nation. The matchup with North Carolina arrives late in the season and could prove to be impactful in the event that the two teams have similar records and could serve as a tie-breaker if the two were to finish with identical records. All in all, Clemson plays in a murderer’s row of a conference and will need to develop resolve, competitiveness and a stiff identity on both sides of the court in order to succeed.
Regular season win/loss prediction: 25-4
I think that Clemson’s veteran players and tested schemes will allow the Tigers to execute against lower teams. However, I think one of the four losses I have predicted will come against an unranked opponent who shoots the lights out and defends Clemson well enough to prevent them from generating offensive momentum (keep an eye on Georgia Tech). The other three losses will come against the top of the conference. Out of the nine ranked matchups that Clemson is currently slated to play, I think that playing at Duke, at home against Virginia and at Florida State present significant hurdles in the middle of the season when the grind of the season can weigh on a team. Overall though, I think that Clemson will find a way to replace graduated guard Gabe DeVoe and graduated forward Donte Grantham, ushering in a new era of success for the program.
