Sports are unpredictable. We have seen firsthand this year that no matter what a preseason ranking says, nobody truly knows. Year to year, the victor of the Palmetto series is a toss-up. However, statistics class tells us that data regresses to the mean with large sample sizes. So, in the last few years across several different sports, who is the actual champion of South Carolina, according to the laws of statistics?
Football
2024, South Carolina @ Clemson: 17-14
2023, Clemson @ South Carolina: 16-7
2022, South Carolina @ Clemson: 31-30
2021, Clemson @ South Carolina: 30-0
In the last four years, the Palmetto Bowl is even at 2-2. In that span, no team has held home-field advantage, funny enough. In this span, the combined score is 90-55 in favor of the Tigers. The Cocks win the close ones. When the Tigers win, they leave no doubt.
Basketball
Men:
2024, Clemson @ South Carolina: 88-91, overtime
2023, South Carolina @ Clemson: 67-72
2022, Clemson @ South Carolina: 58-60
2021, South Carolina @ Clemson: 56-70
Women:
2025, Clemson @ South Carolina: 37-65
2024, South Carolina @ Clemson: 77-45
2023, Clemson @ South Carolina: 40-109
2022, South Carolina @ Clemson: 85-31
2021, Clemson @ South Carolina: 45-76
Similar to the football field, the last four men’s basketball games have been split at 2-2. The four-year final score tally favors Brad Brownell’s team 288-274.
Unsurprisingly, South Carolina’s dominant women’s basketball program has owned the Tigers, going 5-0 in the last half-decade. The overall tally is a whopping 412-198.
Soccer
Men:
2025, South Carolina @ Clemson: 1-4
2024, Clemson @ South Carolina: 2-2
2023, South Carolina @ Clemson: 0-2
2022, Clemson @ South Carolina: 1-0
2021, South Carolina @ Clemson: 0-5
Women:
2025, South Carolina @ Clemson: 0-0
2024, Clemson @ South Carolina: 1-1
2023, South Carolina @ Clemson: 0-0
2022, Clemson @ South Carolina: 2-2
2021, South Carolina @ Clemson: 1-2
In the past five years, South Carolina has not defeated Clemson soccer in any capacity. The men are 4-0-1 with a 14-3 total score. The women notched one win in 2021 before the commencement of a four-year stalemate. Neck and neck, the women’s matchups equate to 5-4 with Clemson on top.
Baseball, Softball
Baseball:
2025 series score: 3-0 Clemson; combined score: 18-6, Clemson
2024 series score: 2-0 Clemson; combined score: 10-8, Clemson
2023 series score: 2-1 South Carolina; combined score: 20-15, South Carolina
2022 series score: 3-0 Clemson; combined score: 18-6, Clemson
Softball:
2025, Clemson @ South Carolina: 6-0
2024, South Carolina @ Clemson: 6-4
2023, South Carolina @ Clemson: 0-10
2022, South Carolina @ Clemson: 1-8
Clemson baseball has won 10 of its last 11 meetings with its interstate foe. The combined runs total 61-40 for Clemson.
Clemson softball is 3-1 against the Gamecocks in the last four years with a convincing 28-7 margin. Across their three wins, the Tigers held South Carolina to just one total run.
Let’s tally it all up. If we add up all the scores exactly as they are, the Gamecocks lead 795 to 684. But the gulf in quality of women’s basketball drastically skews the data.
If we convert all scores to a normalized 100-point scale, we can appropriately factor in 1-0 soccer wins and such. In doing so, Clemson holds the edge with a calculated score of 2,761.9 to 2,050.9. Statistically, this means Clemson is 29.54% better in the last few years with scores normalized.
Not that I’m unhappy with that figure, but sports can’t be defined by numbers. Come Saturday, I hope Clemson can actually put up 2,761.9 against South Carolina.
